New PDF release: 10 Essentials of Forex Trading

By Martinez J

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Example text

The accounting data from these quarters are the last that could be used as a leading indicator of the forthcoming price advance. 1 percent. These data exhibit an acceleration-a positive change in the change in quarterly earnings. Thus, another investment rule suggested by these 222 winners is to seek out firms with a positive change in the change in quarterly earnings, that is, earnings acceleration. The behavior of changes in quarterly sales (Panel A of Table 13) closely parallels that of changes in quarterly earnings, with both accelerating during the buy-2 and buy-1 quarters.

These average excess cumulative returns were slightly lower than those reported when the Datagraph restriction was imposed. Again, this similarity in returns results probably because many of the variables underlying the Datagraph rating are directly incorporated into the trading strategy. Table 27 reports the effects of removing the two relative strength requirements as well as the Datagraph filter. When these conditions were eliminated, 157 buy signals were generated during 1984-86. After four quarters, the performance of this subset of trading rules was nearly 6 percentage points less than the performance of the complete set.

7. The relative strength rank of the stock in the current quarter is greater than the rank in the previous quarter. 8. The O'Neil Datagraph rating is at least 70. 9. The stock is selling within 15 percent of its maximum price during the previous two years. These nine investment criteria are not judged on the basis of the statistical sophistication (or the lack thereof) underlying their discovery, but on the basis of the results they produce in other samples. To this end, the nine characteristics form the basis for a simple trading strategy which, applied to a universe of 2,279 New York and American Stock Exchange firms over the 1970-83 period, significantly outperformed the S&P 500 index.

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10 Essentials of Forex Trading by Martinez J


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